Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.179015 12.511420 14.032901 15.920574 18.231092 21.010211 24.675161
2024-10-20 9.174017 10.703542 12.572677 15.081901 18.457654 22.998087 29.875401
2024-10-27 7.954521 9.527016 11.534353 14.375837 18.463382 24.445210 34.596468
2024-11-03 7.924198 9.797941 12.322789 16.150038 22.179680 32.151918 52.437058
2024-11-10 7.595491 9.606576 12.424746 16.922655 24.538797 38.518480 72.321159
2024-11-17 6.925020 8.861372 11.630828 16.174676 24.182506 39.803439 81.985380
2024-11-24 6.520625 8.452126 11.278265 16.062783 24.897629 43.456917 101.436217
2024-12-01 6.160037 8.072073 10.924509 15.886755 25.439412 46.942193 124.924393
2024-12-08 5.884283 7.793280 10.696200 15.886182 26.315575 51.607266 161.229884
2024-12-15 5.681099 7.606296 10.591985 16.084778 27.644449 58.138266 224.307189
2024-12-22 5.375791 7.240927 10.165348 15.633132 27.451769 60.252133 269.157547
2024-12-29 5.181133 7.034894 9.984505 15.621748 28.265742 66.014139 376.307736
2025-01-05 4.867760 6.638757 9.479780 14.976844 27.570028 66.829950 450.583262
2025-01-12 4.560563 6.237554 8.941983 14.216816 26.469887 65.795971 502.622620
2025-01-19 4.297927 5.894768 8.483282 13.572034 25.557220 65.172250 571.739366
2025-01-26 4.411658 6.162698 9.100031 15.190815 30.989760 96.204270 5502.684144
2025-02-02 4.373548 6.177443 9.267398 15.892898 34.209542 123.424038 NaN
2025-02-09 4.154038 5.876665 8.836280 15.213239 33.010406 121.986949 NaN
2025-02-16 4.024797 5.722433 8.667089 15.111430 33.657241 134.874739 NaN
2025-02-23 3.897330 5.565018 8.481559 14.951193 34.081289 147.367383 NaN
2025-03-02 3.797725 5.450516 8.369450 14.950671 35.069118 167.563593 NaN
2025-03-09 3.725355 5.379303 8.334806 15.131445 36.784963 201.241806 NaN
2025-03-16 3.590981 5.194470 8.069653 14.720166 36.171894 206.642016 NaN